State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability

Landfast sea ice (fast ice) is an important though poorly understood component of the cryosphere on the Antarctic continental shelf, where it plays a key role in atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet interaction and coupled ecological and biogeochemical processes. Here, we present a first in-depth baseline analysis of variability and change in circum-Antarctic fast-ice distribution (including its relationship to bathymetry), based on a new high-resolution satellite-derived time series for the period 2000 to 2018. This reveals (a) an overall trend of −882 ± 824 km² yr⁻¹ (−0.19 ± 0.18% yr⁻¹) and (b) eight distinct regions in terms of fast-ice coverage and modes of formation. Of these, four exhibit positive trends over the 18-year period and four negative. Positive trends are seen in East Antarctica and in the Bellingshausen Sea, with this region claiming the largest positive trend of + 1198 ± 359 km² yr⁻¹ (+1.10 ± 0.35% yr⁻¹). The four negative trends predominantly occur in West Antarctica, with the largest negative trend of −1206 ± 277 km² yr⁻¹ (−1.78 ± 0.41% yr⁻¹) occurring in the Victoria and Oates Land region in the western Ross Sea. All trends are significant. This new baseline analysis represents a significant advance in our knowledge of the current state of both the global cryosphere and the complex Antarctic coastal system, which are vulnerable to climate variability and change. It will also inform a wide range of other studies.Alexander D. Fraser, Robert A. Massom, Mark S. Handcock, Phillip Reid, Kay I. Ohshima, Marilyn N. Raphael, Jessica Cartwright, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Zhaohui Wang, and Richard Porter-Smit

Antarctic Landfast Sea Ice: A Review of Its Physics, Biogeochemistry and Ecology

Antarctic landfast sea ice (fast ice) is stationary sea ice that is attached to the coast, grounded icebergs, ice shelves, or other protrusions on the continental shelf. Fast ice forms in narrow (generally up to 200 km wide) bands, and ranges in thickness from centimeters to tens of meters. In most regions, it forms in autumn, persists through the winter and melts in spring/summer, but can remain throughout the summer in particular locations, becoming multi-year ice. Despite its relatively limited extent (comprising between about 4% and 13% of overall sea ice), its presence, variability and seasonality are drivers of a wide range of physical, biological and biogeochemical processes, with both local and far-ranging ramifications for the Earth system. Antarctic fast ice has, until quite recently, been overlooked in studies, likely due to insufficient knowledge of its distribution, leading to its reputation as a “missing piece of the Antarctic puzzle.” This review presents a synthesis of current knowledge of the physical, biogeochemical and biological aspects of fast ice, based on the sub-domains of: fast ice growth, properties and seasonality; remote-sensing and distribution; interactions with the atmosphere and the ocean; biogeochemical interactions; its role in primary production; and fast ice as a habitat for grazers. Finally, we consider the potential state of Antarctic fast ice at the end of the 21st Century, underpinned by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model projections. This review also gives recommendations for targeted future work to increase our understanding of this critically-important element of the global cryosphere.A. D. Fraser ... A. R. Klekociuk ... et al

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength

Spatio-temporal variability of polynya dynamics and ice production in the Laptev Sea between the winters of 1979/80 and 2007/08

Polynyas in the Laptev Sea are examined with respect to recurrence and interannual wintertime ice production.We use a polynya classification method based on passive microwave satellite data to derive daily polynya area from long-term sea-ice concentrations. This provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability of open-water and thin-ice regions on the Laptev Sea Shelf. Using thermal infrared satellite data to derive an empirical thin-ice distribution within the thickness range from 0 to 20 cm, we calculate daily average surface heat loss and the resulting wintertime ice formation within the Laptev Sea polynyas between 1979 and 2008 using reanalysis data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, as atmospheric forcing. Results indicate that previous studies significantly overestimate the contribution of polynyas to the ice production in the Laptev Sea. Average wintertime ice production in polynyas amounts to approximately 55 km39 27% and is mostly determined by the polynya area, wind speed and associated large-scale circulation patterns. No trend in ice production could be detected in the period from 1979/80 to 2007/08

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies

The role of Antarctic sea ice in global climate change

Taking a distinct interdisciplinary focus, a critical view is presented of the current state of research concerning Antarctic sea-ice/atmosphere/ocean interaction and its effect on climate on the interannual timescale, with particular regard to anthropogenic global warming. Sea-ice formation, morphology, thickness, extent, seasonality and distribution are introduced as vital factors in climatic feedbacks. Sea-ice / atmosphere interaction is next discussed, emphasizing its meteorological and topographical influences and the effects of and on polar cyclonic activity. This leads on to the central theme of sea ice in global climate change, which contains critiques of sea-ice climatic feedbacks, current findings on the representation of these feedbacks in global climatic models, and to what extent they are corroborated by observational evidence. Sea-ice/ocean interaction is particularly important. This is discussed with special reference to polynyas and leads, and the use of suitably coupled sea-ice/ocean models. A brief review of several possible climatic forcing factors is presented, which most highly rates a postulated ENSO-Antarctic sea-ice link. Sea-ice/atmosphere/ocean models need to be validated by adequate observations, both from satellites and ground based. In particular, models developed in the Arctic, where the observational network allows more reasonable validation, can be applied to the Antarctic in suitably modified form so as to account for unique features of the Antarctic cryosphere. Benefits in climatic modelling will be gained by treating Antarctic sea ice as a fully coupled component of global climate